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9

The Fed wants to hear YOUR thoughts on the recession!

Ron Wirtz, editor of the fedgazette, contacted me and others in the community for insights regarding the recession’s effect (actual and psychological) on employment. Through this CO2 Partners blog, he is now interested in getting your insights and experience.

Below you’ll find Ron Wirtz’s request in full. Do your stories and impressions match the Fed’s findings? It’s an honest and important request that I hope you will accept by posting your own thoughts on this blog.

The fedgazette will follow blog postings, some of which might be used in the final research articles expected to be published in the July fedgazette . Your comments are more important than your identity, but some source identification (name, firm, location, size) is necessary to put your comments in proper economic and geographic context. So please offer whatever level of identification you are comfortable with, even if it be generic (owner, wholesale food distributor in western Minnesota). If you don’t want to respond publicly, you can, of course, contact Ron directly at ron.wirtz@mpls.frb.org.

Ron Wirtz writes:  I am doing research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis on the recession’s effect on Ninth District states. We’ve gathered a lot of employment data, and sliced and diced it in a multitude of ways (and foreshadowed in part below). But as everyone knows, data can only tell part of the story, and that’s why I’m writing. I’m trying to get insights from thoughtful people throughout the Ninth District (a territory that runs from western Wisconsin to Montana) to help me tell the recession-and-employment story in their region and state. I’m interested in anecdotes, but I’m more interested in understanding the differing economic moods, their sources, and the general outlook across the Ninth District.

Below are a handful of questions I’d love your insights on regarding the business climate in your community or region. I’ll grant that they are not simple or easy questions. But that’s kind of the point. I’m specifically contacting folks (like yourself) that have a broader economic perspective that can help me frame recession and employment issues for fedgazette readers.

For your insights to be included in my research, I need your feedback by Wednesday, April 7. If you would prefer to chat by phone, I can be reached at the number below. I look forward to hearing from you on these important topics.

Regards,

Ron

Ronald A. Wirtz Editor 
fedgazette Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 
www.minneapolisfed.org 
twitter.com/MinneapolisFed 
612.204.5262

RECESSION QUESTIONS (answer any that pique your interest)

  • First, what’s the “economic mood” like in your community or region (and if you’re willing to opine, more broadly statewide)? Upbeat, or beat up?
  • From an employment perspective, how has this recession been similar to past experiences you’re familiar with or experienced personally. How, or what, has been different this time around?
  • Our data show that Upper Midwest states have fared better  during this recession in terms of overall unemployment, and the growth of unemployment—compared with many states and the nation as a whole.
    • Are these ‘moral victories’ recognized, or appreciated, or just something appreciated by economists and other eggheads? Can you hang your hat on the slogan, “We’re not as bad off as most!”?
    • What are the 2-3 elements you believe to be hurting your community or region’s economy the most?
    • Economists are fond of saying (maybe coldly) that recessions help economies become more efficient, and ultimately more prosperous. Do you feel like your state/regional economy will come out of this (insert your timeline here) better or worse? Why?
    • Our research shows that the pattern of job loss—by education levels, age, etc.—in district states is pretty typical of past recessions, though steeper in this recession. Is there any reason, or good evidence, for a half-full perspective? Unemployment remains high by most any measure. But are we seeing any ‘green shoots’ or other signs of employment rebirth, or growth in new economic sectors?
    • What is being done well – intentionally, or serendipitously; in government or in the private sector – to position the region/state for growth, and specifically to capitalize on new economic opportunities? On the flip side, what obstacles are present, and what issues have been left unattended and stand in the way of growth?

Many thanks.

–Ron

John LeTourneau

CO2 Partners LLC

About the Author

  • Minneapolis Metro Unemployed MBA

    1. The mood in my cirles is “Beat Up”. Everyone is aware of the unemployment situation and the adverse affects it is having on families and communities. I am a Lions Club memeber and we regualrly disucss the economic affects the current situation is/will have on our fund raising. This in turn affects our abilities to help those in need. Even my 5 year old granson wished me luck on an interview recently. I don’t believe I was this aware of these matters at that age.

    2. I am a career manufacturing professional and unfortunately have experience layoffs twice before. Each of those times I was able to locate new employment within 3 months. I have currently been unemployed for 8 months and have had various forms (phone and in person) of interviews with 10 different companies over that period of time.

    3. Moral victories do not make the mortgage payment. Housing/Real Estate Construction would appear to be the most damaged sector that I am aware of. Manufacturing also would seem to be depressed significantly. Yes, I do think a recovery has started, it will take several months to begin to feel the full effects of improvement. This severe recession does appear to have created a “cut throat” type of atmosphere. Whatever employee loyalty did exist before has taken a serious hit through this down turn. Even those still working appear to have a sour taste regarding their jobs, excessive hours/pay cuts etc. The long term affects of this may harm our economy going forward. I am hearing rumblings about green opportunities and alternative energy opportunites but have yet to see any solid evidence. I believe the federal government is on the right track with the various stimulus afforts. Some are more effective than others but any action is better than none. State govenments however are battling significant budget challenges and the balanced budget requirments many have is worsening the downturn/ delaying the recovery. Long term we need to get our arms around our deficit spending, this will likely involve higher taxes in various forms but I would rather be paying higher taxes wiht an income than to be on the street.

    My final thoughts, our country has ridden a big wave for most of my adult life. This wave has now subsided and we are moving into the next era, painfully. Slowly our population will realize we must pay as we go and this will run head long into many debates about limiting our actions. I believe our economy will move towards a more mature model similar to some western European countries. Emerging economies, i.e. China/India/…. will be the new global leaders for prosperity.

  • steve beals

    The real difference in this recession is the overwhelming caution. Recovery is going to be very slow. The customer has a real feeling that the buying habits of the past are just that, in the past. There’s a market for the esentials but the market for the extras is strained and its that way because basic buying habits have changed. Really changed. They may change back but its going to be slow. That extra sale on the items that are extra is what built most businesses improvements. That extra is what fuels an expanding economy. That means hiring is just not needed. It will come back, eventually, hopefully, but slowly.

  • David Croson

    The mood is “cash is king.” I think that investors are being cautious (and VERY demanding.) They realize that they’re in the driver’s seat and are in no hurry to commit funds. Credit is so tight (despite low interest rates) that every deal must be done on an all-equity basis; business credit cards are cutting back limits and lines of credit are getting yanked.

    Re: those cold economists — it’s not the recession that makes the economy more vibrant; it’s the redeployment of assets that weren’t being put to their best use. The long, drawn-out suffering of businesses that are slowly losing money doesn’t help the economy at all. It would be better for many of these business owners to “give up the ghost” unless they’re sure they have enough to last all the way through to the recovery. It’s hardly embarrassing to be unemployed (or to have your business fail) right now, but it will be devastating to go broke just before the economy turns the corner.

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